LATAM Capital Weekly · Issue 2 · Week of 9 November 2026 · 11-minute read

Executive Summary

The week’s defining tension for institutional capital was a sharp repricing of US rates colliding with Latin American dollar markets that stayed open. A hotter October CPI pushed the US 10-year up roughly 30bp to 5.15% and lifted the priced odds of a December Fed hike to about 87%, yet Peru placed a record US$4.5bn of sustainable bonds against more than US$21bn of orders and Ecopetrol raised US$2bn on a 3.5x book. Local currencies absorbed the shock instead: the real closed near 5.65, its weakest since June 2025, the Chilean peso briefly crossed 1,000 per dollar, the Colombian peso lost 2.3% and Peru tightened policy. For allocators, hard-currency access remains intact for quality names, while the cost of local-currency exposure and FX hedging is rising.

• Rates shock: the US 10-year ended at 5.15% on 13 Nov, about 30bp higher on the week, which lifts the hurdle rate on every unhedged LATAM commitment and the carry cost of rolling FX hedges.
• Books still deep: Peru’s US$4.5bn of 12- and 30-year sustainable bonds drew more than US$21bn of orders on 9 Nov, evidence that investment-grade sovereign paper can refinance into a rate shock, which supports quasi-sovereign and DFI-backed credit.
• Real under pressure: USD/BRL rose about 2.6% to 5.65 even as the Senate approved a fiscal package worth up to R$56.1bn in 2027, so dollar LPs should still price a wider exit-FX band for Brazil than for Mexico or Peru.
• Argentina relief, not repair: country risk fell 107bp to about 832, but Invecq puts Treasury dollar deposits below US$200m against roughly US$4.4bn of January maturities, keeping Argentine dollar commitments event-driven.
• Colón at a record: the MONEX average fell to ₡446.10 on 13 Nov, a historical low for the dollar, squeezing colón revenues for dollar-earning hotels and exporters just as September activity growth slowed to 2.4%.

Last Week’s Calls

• Brazil October IPCA (Confirmed): 4.63% y/y and 0.14% m/m on 12 Nov, below the 4.74% median cited in the press, so the 13.75% Selic hold now carries a real-rate cushion above 9 points.
• Peru BCRP (Changed): the bank raised its rate 25bp to 4.50% on 12 Nov instead of holding, while saying the move does not necessarily start a hiking cycle.
• Mexico 2027 budget (Confirmed): the lower house approved MXN 10.64tn of spending, a 1.3% real increase, on 11 Nov, ahead of the 15 Nov deadline.
• Colombia October CPI (Confirmed): 6.30% y/y on 9 Nov, a touch below the 6.38% Reuters poll we flagged.

Charts

Order books for this fortnight’s largest LATAM dollar deals ran 2x to almost 5x the amount placed, despite the jump in US yields.

The colón appreciated in each of the last eight sessions, taking the MONEX average to a new record low for the dollar.

Argentina’s sovereign spread gave back most of the prior week’s spike, but remains above its late-October level.

Markets

Asset	Close	Week change	Date	Source
USD/BRL	5.6549-5.657	+2.63% to +2.66%	13 Nov	Campo Grande News; Agência Brasil via O Povo
USD/MXN (Banxico FIX)	18.5336	Peso modestly stronger	13 Nov	La Razón; EFE via Informador
USD/COP	3,317.13	+2.28%	13 Nov	Infobae (Set-FX)
USD/CLP	995.0-995.9	+CLP 16.7 to 20.4	13 Nov	Diario Financiero; La Tercera
USD/PEN	3.4050	-0.6%	13 Nov	Gestión (BCRP)
USD/ARS wholesale	1,543.50	-ARS 2 (-0.1%)	13 Nov	Infobae; Ámbito
USD/CRC (MONEX avg.)	446.10	-0.8% (computed)	13 Nov	El Observador; La Nación
Ibovespa	172,457.77	+2.35%	13 Nov	A Crítica; Campo Grande News
S&P/BMV IPC	71,204.98	-0.26%	13 Nov	El Financiero; EFE via Informador
S&P IPSA	Not verified	+1.17%	13 Nov	Diario Estrategia
MSCI COLCAP	2,437-2,452	-1.9%	13 Nov	Infobae; Grupo Aval
S&P Merval	84,704-85,053	+0.2% to +0.7% (computed)	13 Nov	Infobae; EFE via Infobae
US 10-year Treasury	5.15%	About +30bp	13 Nov	Forbes Advisor; Stocktwits
Argentina country risk	830-841bp	-107bp	13 Nov	Ámbito; Hoy Día
Brent (Jan)	US$95.84	About -2.5%	13 Nov	Reuters via Yahoo Finance; Rigzone
Copper (LME)	US$6.17/lb	-2.47%	13 Nov	Cochilco
Soybeans (CBOT)	Not verified	+3.9%	13 Nov	Grain Central
IFIX (Brazil FIIs)	3,615.23	-0.36%	13 Nov	Suno; Funds Explorer

FX. The dollar’s best week in more than a month hit the high-carry, commodity-linked currencies hardest. The real closed near 5.65, up about 3.9% for November, as fiscal doubts compounded the US move; the Chilean peso touched 1,003.65 intraday before closing just under 1,000; the Colombian peso fell 2.3%. The Mexican peso held near 18.53, the sol firmed 0.6% after the BCRP hike and the colón set a record. Implication: as US two-year yields jumped about 35bp, hedging costs rise for every currency, but dollar LPs now face visibly wider exit-FX dispersion between MXN, PEN and CRC on one side and BRL, CLP and COP on the other.

Equities. The Ibovespa rose 2.35% to 172,458, though the real’s slide absorbed nearly all of that gain for dollar investors. Mexico’s IPC slipped 0.26% after three record closes earlier in the week and is up 10.7% year to date per Actinver; the IPSA added 1.17%; the Merval rebounded from 2026 lows; the COLCAP lost 1.9%. Implication: Mexico’s listing window is the most open in the region, which matters for CFE Fibra E’s follow-on; Brazilian IPO and block-trade pricing remains hostage to the currency.

Rates and spreads. The US 10-year ended at 5.15% and the 2-year near 4.86-4.88%, after October CPI rose 0.4% m/m. Argentina’s spread compressed 107bp to about 830-841bp as dollar bonds recovered 2.6-3%. We found no dated local 10-year closes this week. Implication: spread tightening in Argentina was partly offset by a higher US base, so all-in dollar coupons for new LATAM issuers are rising even where credit premia are stable.

Commodities. Brent settled at US$95.84, a second weekly loss of about 2.5% on surplus signals; copper lost 2.47% to US$6.17/lb on the strong dollar and rate expectations; soybeans gained 3.9% on WASDE tightening. Implication: softer copper trims cash flow headroom for Chilean and Peruvian mining credit, while firmer soy supports agribusiness borrowers in Brazil and Argentina.

Macro and Policy

• United States: October CPI rose 0.4% m/m against 0.3% expected, with core at 0.3% for a third month (BLS, 10 Nov, via InvestmentNews); by 13 Nov, futures priced close to 87% odds of a 25bp December hike and about 13% for 50bp (CNBC). Allocator angle: a firmer dollar raises the bar for new LATAM commitments until the 8-9 Dec FOMC.
• Brazil: IPCA was 4.63% y/y in October (IBGE, 12 Nov, via Tribuna do Sertão). The Senate approved the base text of the fiscal bill PLP 299/2026 by 45-31 on 12 Nov; the rapporteur estimates a 2027 primary improvement of R$45.1bn to R$56.1bn, the Planning Minister up to R$60bn, and the bill also lets up to R$10.5bn of diesel subsidy fall outside the 2026 target (InvestNews; ND Mais). Allocator angle: the lower-house vote, expected from 17 Nov (Metrópoles), is the near-term catalyst for BRL-denominated credit marks.
• Mexico: CPI accelerated to 3.75% y/y in October, a third consecutive rise, with core at 3.80% (INEGI, 9 Nov, via Animal Político and El CEO); the lower house passed the 2027 budget unchanged on 11 Nov (El CEO). Allocator angle: with Moody’s and Fitch already at the last investment-grade notch since May, fiscal delivery rather than further Banxico cuts now drives CKD and CERPI pricing.
• Peru: the BCRP raised its reference rate to 4.50% on 12 Nov, ending a pause dating from August 2025 (La República; Forbes Perú). Three days earlier the MEF priced US$4.5bn of sustainable globals with 6.06% and 6.45% coupons and launched an exchange of 2027-2031 bonds into a 2038 line (Infomercado; El Peruano). Allocator angle: a firmer sol and term-extended sovereign curve help PEN infrastructure financings, even as local funding costs rise.
• Colombia: Bloomberg reported on 10 Nov that the government is negotiating a loan of about US$15bn with the IMF; Hacienda said no amounts or programme had been discussed (Forbes Colombia; Minuto60). October CPI was 6.30% (DANE via La República). Allocator angle: an IMF anchor would lower sovereign tail risk but bring conditionality that could tighten the fiscal spending that supports domestic demand.
• Argentina: October CPI was 2.2% m/m (INDEC, per MDZ) and 33.1% y/y (Rankia). Invecq estimates Treasury dollar deposits below US$200m after an IMF interest payment, against close to US$4.4bn of January bond maturities, with local AO29 placements halted since August (Infobae). Allocator angle: the funding plan for January, not the weekly spread rally, decides whether dollar commitments re-enter.
• Chile: the central bank’s expectations survey cut 2026 growth to zero and 2027 to 3% (Emol, 10 Nov), and Bloomberg Economics expects Q3 GDP, due 18 Nov, to contract 0.8% y/y (Bloomberg Línea). Allocator angle: a stagnant economy with inflation at the 4.5% policy rate leaves the BCCh little room to ease, a headwind for leveraged buyouts.

Country	Policy rate / real rate	Inflation trend	FX / risk	Fiscal / ratings	Private-capital climate
Brazil	13.75% vs 4.63% (~9.1pt)	Below consensus	BRL -2.6% wk, weakest since Jun 2025	Senate passed fiscal base text	Softer: FX slide outweighs fiscal progress
Mexico	6.25% vs 3.75% (~2.5pt)	Rising three months	Peso steady near 18.53	Budget passed; IG floor at two agencies	Stable: equities near records, Afores nudged to infra
Chile	4.50% vs 4.5% (~0)	Flat at policy rate	CLP touched 1,000	Growth consensus at zero	Softer: stagnation and copper slip
Colombia	12.25% vs 6.30% (~6pt)	Sticky above 6%	COP -2.3% wk	IMF loan talks reported	Unclear: Ecopetrol access vs fiscal stress
Peru	4.50% vs 5.25% Lima (negative)	Highest in three years	PEN +0.6% wk	Record US$4.5bn global, ~4.7x book	Stable: market access offsets the hike
Argentina	n/a	2.2% m/m, 33.1% y/y	Spread ~832, -107bp	Thin Treasury dollar buffer	Unclear: January maturities unresolved
Costa Rica	3.00% vs 0.55% (Oct)	Low but positive	CRC record strong	No new action found	Stable: FDI inflows, slower activity

Private Capital

Private Equity and Venture

• Petrobras agreed to buy the 70% of ethanol-pipeline operator Logum it does not own from Raízen, Copersucar and Uniduto for about R$620m (US$111m), subject to antitrust approval (Brazil, 12 Nov, Rio Times).
• Clara raised a US$65m Series C co-led by KASZEK, Citius and DEG, alongside a renewed US$40m growth facility (Mexico, LAVCA Venture Bulletin, 11 Nov).
• Grupo Simec agreed to acquire 100% of Argentine steelmaker Acerbrag from Votorantim with its own funds; price undisclosed (company release, 10 Nov, via Rio Times).

Private Credit and Structured Finance

• IDB Invest provided US$200m to First Citizens Bank to expand lending to SMEs and low- and middle-income households (IDB Invest, 10 Nov).
• Proparco extended a US$50m climate-finance loan facility to BTG Pactual (Brazil, Proparco, 9 Nov).

Infrastructure and Project Finance

• CFE Fibra E began investor meetings on 10 Nov for a global follow-on of about 451m CBFEs plus up to 30% upsize and 15% over-allotment, with IFC evaluating up to US$80m; press put the maximum at US$867m, pricing not yet set (Mexico, BMV filing; El CEO).
• IDB pipeline: Santander Chile requested an IDB Invest A/B loan for affordable-housing mortgages and Brazilian Nickel one for a mine expansion in Piauí, while Colombia secured an IDB energy loan aimed at cutting subsidy spending (LatinFinance, 8-10 Nov; LatinFinance; LatinFinance).
• AWS opened its first cloud region in Chile, tied to a US$4bn investment, with full launch expected by year-end (Mobile Europe, 13 Nov).

Exits, Secondaries and Capital Markets

• Republic of Peru priced US$4.5bn of 12- and 30-year sustainable globals on 9 Nov, its largest dollar issue, with more than 320 accounts and orders above US$21bn (Gestión; ProActivo).
• Ecopetrol placed US$2bn of eight-year bonds on 9 Nov against peak demand of US$6.93bn, and will redeem US$810m of 2029 notes early on 19 Nov (Colombia, Portafolio).
• EPM’s US$1bn seven-year bond, priced on 5 Nov at about 2x demand, was scheduled to settle on 10 Nov (La República).

Investment Flows

• Sovereign demand: Peru’s book was nearly five times the final size and more than seven times the initially planned amount, per the MEF (Gestión, 10 Nov). Why it matters: cross-over and EM dedicated money is still allocating to LATAM investment grade, which keeps refinancing channels open for quasi-sovereign borrowers.
• Mexican pensions: at the Amafore meeting on 10 Nov, the Finance Secretary urged Afores toward transport, housing and energy through FIBRAs and CKDs, without making it mandatory (Publimetro). Why it matters: it gives a domestic anchor bid for vehicles such as CFE Fibra E as foreign appetite tightens.
• Costa Rica FDI: Johnson & Johnson MedTech opened a 19,000 m² medical-device plant in Grecia on 9 Nov, projecting 3,000 direct jobs over the coming years (Teletica; CRHoy). Why it matters: new free-zone capacity outside the Greater Metropolitan Area supports industrial land and housing demand in Alajuela.
• Chile digital infrastructure: AWS’s new Chile region carries a US$4bn investment commitment (Mobile Europe, 13 Nov). Why it matters: hyperscaler capex underpins data-centre power and land demand even as the broader Chilean economy stalls.
• Argentina reserves: the BCRA bought US$172m over the week and gross reserves rose about US$524m (Ámbito, 13 Nov). Why it matters: modest accumulation helps, but it is small relative to January’s US$4.4bn of bond payments.

Real Estate

• Brazil FIIs: the IFIX closed at 3,615.23 on 13 Nov, down 0.36% on the week; receivables funds gained 0.67% while brick funds lost 0.49%, led by shopping centres (-1.64%) and offices (-0.67%) (Suno; XP). Implication: with the Selic at 13.75%, investors prefer CDI-linked real estate credit over equity-like property exposure.
• Costa Rica construction: construction output grew 9.9% y/y in September, with private works up 9.6% on industrial buildings, retail centres, offices and warehouses, and public works up 10.9% (BCCR IMAE via Diario Extra and El Financiero). Implication: construction lenders still have volume, but tenants in free zones are growing slowly, so lease-up assumptions deserve scrutiny.
• Chile housing finance: Santander Chile’s request for an IDB Invest A/B loan targets affordable mortgages (LatinFinance, 9 Nov). Implication: DFI funding is filling long-tenor mortgage gaps where local rates and growth are unfavourable.
• Listed real assets, Mexico: CFE Fibra E’s follow-on will fund additional rights in transmission-grid revenues, its first primary equity raise since its 2018 IPO (Bloomberg Línea; BMV filing, 10 Nov). Implication: its pricing will be a benchmark for yield-oriented infrastructure vehicles competing with FIBRAs for Afore capital.

Costa Rica Focus

• FX: the MONEX average closed at ₡446.10 on 13 Nov, a historical low and the sixth straight session below ₡450, while the BCCR bought US$81.59m for the non-bank public sector during the week, down from US$137.12m the week before (La Nación; El Observador). Allocator angle: November opens the tourism high season, so dollar supply may stay heavy; underwrite dollar-revenue assets against colón costs at today’s rate, not historical averages.
• Activity: the IMAE grew 2.4% y/y in September, 2.8 points slower than a year earlier; the definitive regime grew 3.3% and explained 96% of growth, free zones only 0.6%, and manufacturing contracted 0.5% on lower food, medical-device and electronics output (Delfino; El Observador). Allocator angle: the BCCR flagged the first monthly acceleration in special regimes after 12 months of slowdown, a tentative floor for free-zone landlords.
• Market regulation: SUGEVAL opened a sanction proceeding against BCR SAFI and 33 current and former BCR staff and directors over the purchase of eight properties by its real estate funds that may not have qualified as authorised assets (La Nación, 13 Nov). Allocator angle: governance and asset-eligibility due diligence on local real estate funds is now a live regulatory issue, not a formality.
• Investment pipeline: beyond J&J MedTech, PROCOMER reported Solix opening an AI and data-management services centre on 12 Nov (PROCOMER). Allocator angle: services and med-tech FDI continue to arrive despite the strong colón, supporting office and industrial absorption.
• Policy: the BCCR’s next rate decision is on 26 Nov with the policy rate at 3.00% and October CPI at 0.55% y/y (BCCR calendar; INEC via El Observador). We found no investor-material bill passage verified this week. Allocator angle: a record-strong colón and sub-target inflation keep a cut on the table, which would ease colón borrowing costs for developers.

Our Read

By asset class. A 5.15% US 10-year raises base yields for private credit and hard-currency infrastructure while compressing the dollar value of local-currency equity exits. We expect LPs to lean toward structures with DFI participation, such as IFC’s proposed anchor in CFE Fibra E and IDB Invest A/B loans, and toward Brazilian CDI-linked credit, while buyout and growth equity in Brazil, Chile and Colombia face slower exits; strategic acquirers such as Petrobras and Simec remain the most reliable exit route. Our read, not a forecast.

By country. The opportunity set is widening where market access and policy credibility coincide: Peru priced a record bond, Mexico passed its budget and steered pension money toward infrastructure, and Costa Rica keeps attracting med-tech and services FDI. It is narrowing in Chile, where growth consensus has fallen to zero and the peso touched 1,000, and in Colombia, where IMF talks signal fiscal strain even as Ecopetrol funds easily. Brazil sits in between: fiscal progress is real, but the currency has not yet rewarded it. Our read, not a forecast.

Key risks. A 50bp December Fed hike, still priced at about 13%, would push hedging costs higher; the FOMC minutes on 18 Nov are the next test. Dilution of PLP 299 in Brazil’s lower house would extend the real’s slide; a Chilean Q3 contraction near the -0.8% forecast would confirm a technical recession narrative; and Argentina’s January payments remain unfunded on Invecq’s numbers. Our read, not a forecast.

What would change our view. A US 10-year back below 5%, lower-house approval of PLP 299 without major changes alongside a real back under 5.50, a Chilean Q3 print better than forecast, or CFE Fibra E pricing at its full upsized amount would all argue for broader risk-taking in local-currency strategies. Our read, not a forecast.

Week Ahead

Day	Market	Event	Why it matters
Mon 16 Nov	Brazil	IBC-Br for September; weekly Focus survey	Bloomberg Economics sees Q3 activity -0.6% q/q; tests the Selic plateau
Mon 16 Nov	US / Argentina	Fed Chair Warsh speaks; BCRA monetary conference opens in Buenos Aires	Signals on the December hike size; Argentine policy messaging
Tue 17 Nov	Colombia	Q3 GDP and September ISE (DANE)	Bloomberg Economics expects 1.2% y/y, a q/q contraction
Tue 17 Nov	Brazil	Lower house votes on PLP 299 amendments	Fiscal credibility and the real
Tue 17 Nov	Mexico / US	BIS-World Bank-Banxico Public Investors Conference opens; US retail sales; Nvidia results	Reserve-manager allocation themes; US demand and risk appetite
Wed 18 Nov	Chile / Colombia	Chile Q3 GDP; Colombia September trade balance	Bloomberg Economics sees Chile -0.8% y/y, a third quarterly fall
Wed 18 Nov	United States	FOMC minutes	Read-through for hedging costs and EM flows
Thu 19 Nov	Mexico	Banxico minutes of its split 6.25% decision	Length of the expected pause
Thu 19 Nov	Colombia	Ecopetrol redeems US$810m of 2029 notes	Completes its liability management
Fri 20 Nov	Mexico	September retail sales	Bloomberg Economics expects +3.5% y/y; consumer-credit read

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Data as of 15 November 2026. Figures marked preliminary will be revised. Items reflect public reports on the dates shown; deal terms are as reported and may change. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.

Sources

Private markets

• LAVCA Venture Bulletin, 11 Nov: Clara
• LatinFinance: Santander Chile (headline); Brazilian Nickel (headline); Colombia IDB energy loan (headline)
• IDB Invest press room: First Citizens Bank
• Proparco: BTG Pactual facility
• BMV filing: CFE Fibra E investor meetings (issuer release); El CEO; Bloomberg Línea

Markets and business news

• Campo Grande News: USD/BRL and Ibovespa; O Povo (Agência Brasil); A Crítica
• La Razón: Banxico FIX; Informador (EFE): IPC; El Financiero; Infobae (EFE, Actinver YTD); Milenio
• Infobae Colombia: USD/COP and COLCAP; Grupo Aval
• Diario Financiero: USD/CLP; La Tercera; Diario Estrategia: IPSA
• Gestión: USD/PEN
• Infobae: Merval and USD/ARS; Infobae (EFE): Merval; Ámbito: USD/ARS and BCRA; Ámbito: weekly country risk; Hoy Día; La Nación; Forbes Argentina; Mercado (Invecq)
• Forbes Advisor: Treasury rates; Stocktwits: weekly Treasury moves; CNBC: FedWatch odds
• Reuters via Yahoo Finance: Brent; Rigzone; Grain Central: soybeans
• Gestión: Peru bond; Infomercado; ProActivo
• Portafolio: Ecopetrol bond; La República: EPM; Valora Analitik: EPM
• Rio Times: Petrobras and Logum; Rio Times: Simec and Acerbrag (company release); Mobile Europe: AWS Chile

Macro and institutional

• InvestmentNews (BLS): US October CPI
• Cochilco: copper weekly report
• Tribuna do Sertão (IBGE): IPCA; InvestNews: PLP 299; ND Mais; Metrópoles
• Animal Político (INEGI): Mexico CPI; El CEO: CPI; El CEO: 2027 budget; Publimetro: Hacienda and Afores; Bloomberg Línea: Mexico ratings
• La República (BCRP); Forbes Perú; El Peruano (MEF)
• Forbes Colombia: IMF talks; Minuto60: Hacienda response; La República (DANE): CPI
• MDZ (INDEC): Argentina CPI; Rankia (INDEC); Infobae (Invecq): January maturities
• Emol: Chile expectations survey; Bloomberg Línea: weekly agenda

Costa Rica

• BCCR: MONEX weighted-average table; BCCR: 2026 meeting calendar
• El Observador: MONEX record; El Observador: 12 Nov MONEX; La Nación: MONEX and BCCR purchases
• Delfino (BCCR): IMAE September; El Observador; El Financiero; Diario Extra
• La Nación (SUGEVAL): BCR SAFI proceeding
• Teletica (COMEX): J&J MedTech; CRHoy; PROCOMER: investment news
• El Observador (INEC): October CPI

Other (real estate)

• Suno: IFIX; Funds Explorer; XP: FIIs na Semana