Costa Rica’s biggest export engine just slowed to a crawl, and that changes how a developer or lender should underwrite a lease to a free-zone tenant. Medical device exports grew only 1.05% through September, the weakest ten-year reading, so this note is written mainly for developers and for lenders financing industrial buildings, with a lesson any landlord can reuse.
Key takeaways
- Goods exports grew 3.75% in January to September 2026 against 15.4% a year earlier, and medical devices, about 46% of the total, grew only about 1%.
- A lease is only as strong as the tenant’s sector, so underwrite the tenant and its end market separately, and price in downtime if the tenant leaves.
- Foreign investment is still rising (up 23.4% in the first half), so the story is slower growth, not collapse; structure for both cases.
What happened
- Procomer and the trade ministry (Comex) reported goods exports of $17,565M for January to September 2026, up 3.75% year on year, against 15.4% for the same period of 2025. That is the smallest nine-month growth in six years, per La Nación (26 October 2026).
- Medical devices were $8,178M through September, up 1.05%, and 46.5% of exports; the United States takes 64% of them, according to a 13 November 2026 news roundup citing La Nación and Procomer. The 26 October report put precision and medical equipment growth at about 1%, so the two sources agree.
- Procomer’s own list of headwinds includes US tariffs, colón appreciation, high social-charge and electricity costs, and logistics problems. Sales to North America, 48% of goods exports, fell 1%.
- The picture is not uniformly weak: foreign direct investment rose 23.4% in the first half of 2026 to $2,739.6M (preliminary, Procomer), but free-zone growth has slowed since July 2025 and some firms are reportedly moving operations out, per La Nación (5 October 2026).
Chart: Costa Rica goods export growth by category, January to September 2026 (% vs year earlier)
| Category (Jan-Sep 2026) | Growth vs year earlier |
|---|---|
| Electrical and electronics | +16% |
| Livestock and fisheries | +11% |
| Food | +9% |
| Agricultural | +4% |
| All goods ($17,565M) | +3.75% |
| Precision and medical equipment | +1% |
Why It Matters for Costa Rica
Industrial and free-zone space is leased against a tenant’s export business, so a sector that supplies 46% of goods exports sets the risk for many buildings at once. Developers who signed a build-to-suit lease (a building made to a tenant’s specification, then leased back) hold a concentrated bet: one tenant, one sector, one main customer country. Lenders are exposed in the same way, because a loan against that building is repaid from that single rent stream.
Here is the lesson we think transfers beyond this headline. A lease has two risks: the tenant failing to pay, and the tenant choosing not to renew. Slow sector growth mostly raises the second one. A company with a stable US order book may happily pay rent for years, but one that is deciding where to place its next expansion can leave when the term ends. So we would underwrite three items separately: the tenant’s credit, the length of the committed term compared with the cost of fitting out the space, and how long and how costly it would be to re-let a specialised building to someone else.
Currency belongs in the model as well. Procomer names colón appreciation as a headwind, and many exporters earn dollars while paying wages and some utilities in colones. If rent is dollar-denominated, the exposure moves to the tenant’s margin, which is another reason to test how much margin a tenant has left. This is our read, not a forecast.
Where the Story Is Weaker
A 1% growth rate is still growth, not a contraction, and the headline mixes sectors: electrical and electronics rose 16% and Asia and Europe were up 16% and 9% as destinations. Foreign investment rose 23.4% in the first half, so firms are still committing capital. The slowdown data also comes from a single nine-month window, and the medical device figure for the United States, 64% of that sector, is the number most exposed to tariff news.
The upside case: a tenant sector that stays flat can still renew leases and expand modestly, and new investment from firms diversifying outside Asia could keep demand for modern space firm. What would confirm it is two or three more months of export data showing medical devices growing faster than 1%, together with free-zone investment announcements turning into signed leases. We could not find authoritative data on free-zone vacancy or industrial rents, so we do not quantify the effect on rents or cap rates.
Investor Read-Through
- Developers: before committing to a build-to-suit, ask how long the tenant must stay relative to its fit-out spend, and whether a break option or a parent guarantee is in the lease. Our read, not a forecast: longer committed terms are worth more now than a slightly higher rent.
- Lenders: size the loan to the cost of re-letting the building, not only to today’s rent, and ask for sector and customer concentration disclosure from the tenant.
- Fund allocators: check how much of a Costa Rica real asset portfolio depends on a single export sector, and compare it with a regional peer before adding more.
- Local investors: a Costa Rican attorney or notary should review any lease, guarantee and free-zone regime terms for your own transaction.
What to watch next: Procomer’s next monthly export update, which would show whether the medical device slowdown deepens or recovers; we could not find a scheduled release date.
Resumen en español
- Las exportaciones de bienes crecieron 3,75% entre enero y septiembre de 2026, frente a 15,4% un año antes; los dispositivos médicos, cerca de 46% del total, crecieron solo alrededor de 1%.
- Para desarrolladores y prestamistas, un contrato de arrendamiento depende del sector del inquilino: conviene analizar por separado su crédito, el plazo comprometido y el costo de volver a arrendar el edificio.
- La inversión extranjera directa subió 23,4% en el primer semestre; vigile la próxima actualización mensual de exportaciones de Procomer.
Related reading: Construction grew 9.9% as free zones stall, How to underwrite the Ciudad Gobierno lease, and our development land guide.
Data as of 15 November 2026. Figures marked preliminary will be revised. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.
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