Peru hikes to 4.50% as the real hits a 17-month low

November 13, 2026

LATAM Private Markets Letter · Issue 4 · Friday, 13 November 2026 · 5-minute read

The Read. Fed-hike pricing and a 10-year Treasury near 5% pushed the Brazilian real to its weakest close since June 2025 and tipped Peru into a rate hike, so the hedging and carry math for international LPs is getting harder. Domestic pools are the counterweight: Mexico’s Afores sit at about 8% in structured assets against a 30% ceiling, and Hacienda is publicly steering them toward infrastructure vehicles. For BD teams, lead with locally placed infrastructure, FIBRA and CKD-style structures and hedged terms, and hold off on unhedged local-currency pitches to Brazil and Peru.

Update on Last Issue

Peru BCRP (Changed): raised its reference rate 25 bp to 4.50% on 12 November, ending a pause that began in August 2025, and said this does not necessarily start a series of hikes. Next meeting 10 December.
Brazil October IPCA (Confirmed): 4.63% year on year and +0.14% m/m, below the 4.74% median and the 0.25% monthly median in the Broadcast survey cited by the press.
Colombia AFP foreign-asset cap (Changed): El Colombiano reported on 7 October that Decreto 1490 of 2026 repealed the global 30% cap; per-asset-type limits remain. This resolves the open question in our watchlist.
Mexico CONSAR 30% ceiling (No news): the circular and DOF publication date are still unconfirmed; press describes the ceiling as available.

Charts

Takeaway: Brazil and Colombia offer the widest policy-rate cushion over inflation, while Peru’s rate now sits below Lima inflation.

Chart: Policy rate vs latest 12-month inflation, 4-12 Nov 2026

Sources: Copom/Times Brasil (4 Nov), IBGE via Tribuna do Sertão (12 Nov), Banxico via El Financiero (5-6 Nov), INEGI (9 Nov), Banco Central de Chile and Pauta (27 Oct, 6 Nov), Banrep and DANE via La República (9 Nov), BCRP and INEI via La República (12 Nov). Peru inflation is Lima Metropolitan.

Country	Policy rate	12-month inflation	Simple gap (pts)
Brazil	13.75%	4.63%	9.12
Mexico	6.25%	3.75%	2.50
Chile	4.50%	4.5%	0.00
Colombia	12.25%	6.30%	5.95
Peru	4.50%	5.25%	-0.75

Takeaway: the Selic has been flat at 13.75% since September after a 125 bp easing cycle from January, so the easing phase has paused.

Chart: Brazil Selic target after each Copom, Jan-Nov 2026

Source: Banco Central do Brasil Copom decisions, as tracked in this letter and confirmed for the 4 Nov 2026 hold by Times Brasil. Points are meeting months, spaced by calendar month.

Copom month (2026)	Selic
January	15.00%
March	14.75%
April	14.50%
June	14.25%
August	14.00%
September	13.75%
November	13.75%

Takeaway: Argentina’s sovereign spread stands far above the rest of the region, while Brazil and the Dominican Republic sit just under the regional average.

Chart: JPMorgan EMBI spreads, data to about 9 Nov 2026 (bp)

Source: JPMorgan EMBI as reported by La República (Colombia), article dated 13 Nov 2026, data to about 9 Nov. Argentina was 787 bp on 2 Nov and about 939 bp at the 6 Nov weekly close (Invecq via Mercado).

Country	EMBI spread (bp)
Argentina	939
Colombia	234
Mexico	228
LatAm average	208
Brazil	195
Dominican Republic	195

Analysis: What the Data Says

Rates and real rates. By a simple policy-rate-minus-inflation gap, Brazil (9.1 points) and Colombia (6.0) offer the fattest local cushion, Mexico about 2.5, Chile roughly zero and Peru slightly negative at -0.75. High local yields help domestic pension funds meet targets from fixed income, which can slow the need to add private assets; they also raise the hurdle for local-currency private credit and buyouts.

FX and hedging. The real closed at 5.6507 per dollar on 12 November, its weakest since June 2025, with the press citing a fiscal package of R$50-60bn for 2027, higher Treasury yields and a weak Banco do Brasil result. Markets price a December Fed hike as near-certain and the 10-year was 4.98% on the 10th (Fed H.15). For international LPs this raises hedging cost and makes unhedged exposure harder to defend. Our read: USD-linked structures and hedged sleeves have the better near-term hearing.

Divergence. Peru hiked, Colombia hiked in September and held 4-3 in October, Brazil paused, Mexico cut 3-2 and Chile held. Policy is no longer moving as one block, so a single “LatAm” LP pitch is weaker than country-specific ones.

Where doors open. Mexican Afores hold MXN 9.08 trillion (up 12.6% year on year) with structured instruments at 7.95% and FIBRAs at 3.05%; Finance Secretary Amador urged investment in transport, housing and energy via FIBRAs and CKDs but said no Afore will be obliged. Colombia removed its global 30% foreign cap. These favour infrastructure and listed-vehicle managers with local distribution.

What would change the view. A softer US inflation print or Fed path that lets the dollar retreat; Brazilian fiscal clarity; a firm CONSAR circular and Afore tender calls; a Colombian Court ruling that fixes the reform’s start date.

Scorecard: our read, not a forecast. Based on facts cited in this issue.

Country	Rates and real-rate picture	FX / risk	Pension / regulatory	LP appetite	Reason
Brazil	Selic 13.75% vs IPCA 4.63%	USD/BRL 5.65; EMBI 195	No rule change found	Softer	Weak real and a new fiscal package outweigh the easing pause.
Mexico	6.25% vs CPI 3.75%	EMBI 228	Afores at ~8% vs 30% ceiling	Improving	Cut delivered and the government is nudging pension money to infrastructure.
Chile	4.50% vs CPI 4.5%	USD/CLP 985.5 on 10 Nov	Generational-fund shift pending	Stable	Rates on hold, no new rules this week.
Colombia	12.25% vs CPI 6.30%	EMBI 234; TRM 3,302	30% cap repealed; reform in Court	Unclear	Wider foreign room, but reform timing and fiscal-impact review still open.
Peru	4.50% vs Lima CPI 5.25%	No dated spread	No change found	Softer	Hike, with inflation at its highest since August 2023.
Argentina	CPI 33.1% y/y	EMBI 939	Toll-road tender decree	Unclear	Spread jumped about 150 bp in a week; concession pipeline is early.

Pensions and Regulation

Mexico: at Encuentro Amafore (10 Nov), Finance Secretary Edgar Amador urged Afores toward transport, housing, energy and industry through FIBRAs and CKDs, with no obligation. Press describes a 30% structured and alternatives ceiling, but the circular date is unconfirmed. BD angle: infrastructure and FIBRA/CKD managers should seek Afore meetings; Hamilton Lane is quoted saying alignment with global practice could take 5-10 years.
Colombia (decree): Decreto 1490 of 2026 repealed the global 30% cap on AFP foreign investment and the gradual-adjustment filing, per El Colombiano (7 Oct); per-asset limits remain. BD angle: international managers can pitch AFPs on wider global allocation.
Colombia (reform): the Constitutional Court upheld most of Ley 2381 by 7-1 and opened a fiscal-impact incident (Auto 1352), giving the Finance Minister 30 business days; entry into force remains 1 April 2027 and Colpensiones’ request for 2028 is unresolved (Infobae, 14-15 Oct). BD angle: expect AFP flows and asset-mix planning to stay cautious until the timetable settles.

Fundraising and Deals

Itaú / NeoSpace (Brazil): Itaú is acquiring the AI financial-services company for about US$523m, per a LAVCA bulletin citing an SEC filing (11 Nov); an exit for early angel investors.
Clara (Mexico): US$65m Series C co-led by KASZEK, Citius and DEG, plus a renewed US$40m growth facility, US$105m combined as reported by LAVCA (11 Nov); ARR claim is company-reported.
Fibra CFE (Mexico): global follow-on of about 451 million CBFEs launched with price and size not set; IFC is reportedly evaluating up to US$80m (Cronista, 10 Nov).
Proparco / BTG Pactual (Brazil): US$50m climate-finance loan facility announced 9 Nov (a loan, not a fund commitment).
Venture rounds: Rivio (Brazil) about US$14.3m Series A extension, Takenos (Argentina) US$7m, FinMaq (Colombia) US$6.5m led by Accion, Celes (Colombia) US$5m; Vinci Compass is buying control of Sanar via Vinci Capital Partners IV (5 Nov, price undisclosed). Grupo Argos is reportedly weighing a marginal Cementos Argos stake sale.

Indicators Dashboard

Indicator	Latest	Date	Change vs prior issue	Source
Brazil Selic	13.75%	4 Nov	Unchanged	Copom via Times Brasil
Brazil IPCA, 12m	4.63%	12 Nov	Up from 4.58% (Sep)	IBGE via Tribuna do Sertão
USD/BRL close	5.6507	12 Nov	Up from 5.5058 (9 Nov)	Imirante
Mexico Banxico rate	6.25%	5 Nov	Unchanged	El Financiero
Peru BCRP rate	4.50%	12 Nov	Up from 4.25%	La República, Forbes Perú
Peru Lima CPI, 12m	5.25%	Oct	Unchanged print	La República (INEI)
Colombia CPI, 12m	6.30%	Oct (9 Nov)	Up from 6.29% (Sep)	La República (DANE)
Colombia TRM	COP 3,301.91	13 Nov	Up from 3,221.19 (5 Nov)	Noticias Caracol
Argentina CPI, 12m	33.1%	Oct (12 Nov)	Down from 33.4%	Rankia (INDEC)
Chile CPI, 12m	4.5%	Oct (6 Nov)	Unchanged print	Pauta (INE)
US Fed funds target	3.75-4.00%	28 Oct	Unchanged	Federal Reserve
US 10-year yield	4.98%	10 Nov	Up from 4.93%	Fed H.15

Watchlist

Fed hike pricing: CME FedWatch implied a hike for 9 December (secondary); drives hedging cost. Check 8-9 Dec.
Fibra CFE pricing and IFC ticket: tests infrastructure appetite. Check next issue.
CONSAR circular and DOF date for the 30% ceiling. Check next issue.
Colombia Court: fiscal-impact incident and Colpensiones’ 2028 request. Check next issue.
Brazil fiscal package and Copom 8-9 Dec; Peru BCRP 10 Dec; Banxico 17 Dec.
Argentina toll-road concession tenders (Decree 1358/2026): no amounts set, call due within 12 months.

Calendar

Mon 16 Nov: Brazil Focus survey (weekly).
Tue 17 Nov: Funds Society Leaders event, Santiago (as listed by the organiser).
Fri 20 Nov: PEI Private Equity Awards submission deadline.

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Data as of 13 November 2026. Items reflect public reports on the dates shown; terms are as reported by the sources and may change. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.

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