LATAM Private Markets Letter · Issue 3 · Tuesday, 10 November 2026 · 5-minute read

The Read. Brazil’s Copom minutes, published today, say the Selic should stay restrictive for longer, while Mexico’s and Chile’s October inflation both ticked up and Chile’s central bank had weighed a hike. For fundraisers, real rates are still wide in Brazil and Colombia but have thinned to roughly zero in Chile, so lead with local-currency yield stories in Brazil and Colombia and expect longer hedging and decision cycles with dollar LPs, given a firmer US yield backdrop. Verified allocator mandates, hires and fund closes were again scarce this week, so this is a shorter issue.

Update on Last Issue

• Copom minutes: Confirmed. Published 10 Nov; they say the Selic should stay restrictive for longer and cite re-accelerating inflation and de-anchored expectations (Jornal do Brasil, secondary). The 9 Nov Focus survey now sees the Selic at 13.75% at end-2026, up from 13.50%.
• Banxico: Confirmed. The 25bp cut to 6.25% on 5 Nov was a 3-2 vote, with two members preferring to hold (Yucatán, Zeta Tijuana, secondary). Next decision date still unconfirmed.
• Chile October CPI: Confirmed. INE put it at 4.5% year on year (from 4.1%), published 6 Nov. Central bank minutes (4 Nov) show the board weighed a hike to 4.75% before holding 5-0.
• Colombia pension reform at the Court: Changed (sources conflict). Portafolio (15 Sep) reports ruling C-264 of 2026 upheld most of Ley 2381, with norms in force from 1 Apr 2027 and nine articles returned to Congress. Last issue’s sources described the review as still open and Colpensiones asking for April 2028. We could not reconcile the two.
• CONSAR 30% structured ceiling: No news. No circular or effective date found; the Funds Society column we found describes publication as pending, with conflicting dates.
• Afore mandates (Blue Owl, Ares, Golub): No news.

Charts

Brazil and Colombia keep the widest cushion of policy rate over inflation, while Chile’s is now about zero and Peru’s Lima inflation is above its policy rate.

Brazil dominates LatAm deal value year to date, but Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Peru and Chile together are a similar order of magnitude, with Colombia and Peru up sharply on a few large deals.

Banxico’s easing is slowing: the rate has stepped from 7.00% to 6.25% in a year and held at 6.50% for four straight meetings before the 5 Nov cut.

Analysis: What the Data Says

Rates and real rates. On the latest prints the gap of policy rate over inflation is about 9.2 points in Brazil, 6.0 in Colombia (September CPI), 2.5 in Mexico, 0.0 in Chile and about minus 1.0 in Peru against Lima inflation. Chile’s gap has closed as inflation rose to 4.5%, and the board’s minutes show a hike was debated, so a tightening bias there reduces the appeal of local floating-rate and credit pitches. Brazil’s cushion remains the strongest argument for local-currency strategies, but the Copom minutes say the Selic stays restrictive for longer.

FX, spreads and the US backdrop. USD/BRL closed at R$5.5058 on 9 Nov and the Ibovespa rose 2.22% to 172,236 (O Tempo, secondary). Markets reportedly price roughly an 84-85% chance of a Fed hike on 9 Dec, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.93% (CoinDesk and Yahoo Finance, secondary), after US October CPI printed 0.4% m/m against 0.3% expected. A rising US rate path lifts hedging costs and the bar for dollar LPs, even though EMBI spreads for Chile, Peru and Panama were tight at the last verified date (2 Nov).

Deal flow. TTR counts 109 private equity deals in January-September, down 20%, but only 24 disclosed values totalling US$14,566m, up 97%: the value rise rests on a handful of large transactions, not broad activity. Venture was 272 deals (-36%) with US$3,525m disclosed (+1%). For managers this points to fewer, larger exits and a thinner mid-market, which supports LP caution on new commitments.

What would change the view. A confirmed Afore rule date for the 30% structured ceiling, a Colombian clarification on the pension reform timetable, a Selic path cut by a softer inflation print on 12 Nov, or a Fed hike that lifts the dollar further would each move the reads below.

Country	Rates and real-rate picture	FX/risk	Pension/regulatory	LP appetite	Reason
Brazil	Selic 13.75% vs IPCA 4.58%	USD/BRL 5.51 (9 Nov); EMBI 195bp	No new rules found	Stable	Wide real rate; Copom says restrictive for longer
Mexico	6.25% vs 3.75%	EMBI 228bp	30% structured ceiling unconfirmed	Stable	Cut on 3-2 vote while inflation rose; Afore AUM MXN 9.08tn (Sep)
Chile	4.50% vs 4.5%	EMBI 104bp	Generational funds from Apr 2027; AFP lobby worries on alternatives	Softer	Zero real rate; hike was debated
Colombia	12.25% vs 6.29% (Sep)	EMBI 234bp; US$5.2bn bond (10 Nov)	Reform timetable unclear (sources conflict)	Unclear	Deal value +59% but pension picture disputed
Peru	4.25% vs 5.25% (Lima)	EMBI 121bp	No verified change	Unclear	Inflation above policy rate; BCRP decides 12 Nov
Argentina	CPI 33.4% (Sep)	EMBI 801bp	None found	Unclear	Spread far above peers
Panama/DR/Costa Rica	Not compared	EMBI 134 / 195 / 158bp (2 Nov)	No rule change found	Unclear	Spreads only

Pensions and Regulation

• Chile: the Superintendencia de Pensiones’ investment regime replaces the A-E multifunds with ten generational funds, transition starting 1 April with 36 months to adjust; the consultation draft added minimum as well as maximum limits, and the AFP Association says this curbs alternatives such as infrastructure for older members (Emol, 31 Aug; secondary and older than this window, final text not checked). BD angle: Chilean AFP alternatives capacity is likely to be benchmark-driven, so ask allocators how benchmarks treat private assets before pitching.
• Colombia: Portafolio (15 Sep) reports the Constitutional Court upheld most of Ley 2381, with norms in force from 1 Apr 2027 and nine articles returned to Congress; this conflicts with our earlier sources on an unfinished review and an April 2028 request. BD angle: do not assume Colombian AFP capacity changes before the start date is confirmed.
• Mexico: an opinion column on Funds Society describes a rise in the Afore structured and alternatives ceiling from 20% to 30% subject to conditions in the single financial circular, with publication described as pending; we found no circular or effective date, and its date metadata conflicts. BD angle: treat Afore capacity as unconfirmed and ask CONSAR-facing counsel for the rule text.

Fundraising and Deals

• Chile’s BCI is carrying out an 8 trillion peso (US$8.2bn) capital increase and creating a new holding company, reported 9 Nov (Latin Lawyer); a bank deal, but a large capital event for the local financial sector.
• IDB Invest provided US$100m of A/B financing for the Vientos Bonaerenses wind farm in Argentina, reported 10 Nov (Latin Lawyer); a project loan, not a fund commitment, but a sign of DFI appetite for Argentine infrastructure.
• Colombia issued a US$5.2bn international bond, described as its largest ever, reported 10 Nov (Latin Lawyer).
• LAVCA’s 5 Nov news list shows M&A deals including Colca Capital’s acquisition of Giga.uno and Ariston Education’s acquisition of Merited, with terms not found; no new fund closes were verified this week.

Indicators Dashboard

Indicator	Latest	Date	Change vs prior issue	Source
Brazil Selic	13.75%	4 Nov 2026	Unchanged	Soubrasilia, Gazeta Mercantil
Brazil Focus Selic end-2026	13.75%	9 Nov 2026	+25bp vs 13.50%	InfoMoney (BCB Focus)
Brazil Focus IPCA 2027	4.90%	9 Nov 2026	+0.14 pt vs 4.76%	InfoMoney (BCB Focus)
USD/BRL	5.5058	9 Nov 2026	+0.0182 vs 5.4876 (5 Nov)	O Tempo
Ibovespa	172,236	9 Nov 2026	+6,045 pts vs 166,191 (5 Nov)	O Tempo
Mexico policy rate	6.25%	5 Nov 2026	Unchanged (vote 3-2 confirmed)	Yucatán, Zeta Tijuana
Mexico CPI y/y	3.75%	Oct 2026 (9 Nov)	+0.13 pt vs 3.62% (1H Oct)	Prensa Latina, Excélsior (INEGI)
Chile CPI y/y	4.5%	Oct 2026 (6 Nov)	+0.4 pt vs 4.1% (Sep)	Diario Financiero via T13 (INE)
Chile TPM	4.50%	27 Oct 2026	Unchanged	Rankia
US 10-year Treasury	4.93%	10 Nov 2026	+0.03 pt vs 4.90% (4 Nov)	Yahoo Finance (secondary)
LatAm EMBI average	208bp	2 Nov 2026	No newer print found	Bloomberg Línea via E-Aduana

Watchlist

• Peru BCRP decision: Lima inflation is above the 4.25% policy rate; Thu 12 Nov.
• Brazil October IPCA: reportedly due 12 Nov, with a consensus near 4.7% (Rio Times calendar); tests the Copom’s restrictive message.
• CONSAR circular: confirm the 30% structured ceiling and its effective date; recheck next issue.
• Colombia pension reform: reconcile the Court ruling status and the 1 Apr 2027 start; DANE October CPI value; recheck next issue.
• Chile Superintendencia de Pensiones: final investment regime text and benchmark rules; recheck next issue.
• Afore mandates for Blue Owl, Ares and Golub: no news since June reports.
• FOMC 9 Dec: markets reportedly price a hike, which would lift hedging costs for dollar LPs.

Calendar

• Wed 11 Nov: Mexico industrial production.
• Thu 12 Nov: Peru BCRP rate decision (previous 4.25%); Brazil October IPCA (per Rio Times calendar, not confirmed with IBGE).
• Fri 13 Nov: US PPI.
• Tue 17 to Wed 18 Nov: Cumbre ACVC 2026 (LAVCA events page; venue not verified).
• Later: IVCA Climate Capital Summit 26 Nov; LAVCA LP partnering session 3 Dec; FOMC 9 Dec.

Also on our radar. Costa Rica’s EMBI spread was 158bp on 2 Nov, between Panama and Brazil; no Costa Rica or Central America item was otherwise material to regional private markets this week.

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Data as of 10 November 2026. Items reflect public reports on the dates shown; terms are as reported by the sources and may change. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.

Sources

• Jornal do Brasil, Copom minutes
• InfoMoney, Focus 9 Nov
• O Tempo, Ibovespa and dollar 9 Nov
• Soubrasilia, Copom hold 4 Nov
• Gazeta Mercantil, Copom
• Prensa Latina, Mexico October CPI
• Excélsior, Mexico October CPI
• Yucatán, Banxico cut
• Zeta Tijuana, Banxico vote
• Funds Society, Afore structured limit
• T13 / Diario Financiero, Chile October CPI
• Rankia, Banco Central de Chile minutes
• Emol, Chile AFP investment regime
• Portafolio, Colombia pension ruling
• TTR Data with Datasite, LatAm Q3 2026
• La República, LatAm M&A Q3
• Latin Lawyer, news 9-10 Nov
• E-Aduana, EMBI spreads (Bloomberg Línea)
• Rio Times, key market events calendar
• LAVCA, news and events