LATAM Private Markets Letter · Issue 2 · Friday, 6 November 2026 · 5-minute read

The Read. The region’s two largest rate-setters moved in opposite directions this week: Brazil’s Copom held the Selic at 13.75% and Mexico’s Banxico cut to 6.25%. For fundraisers, Mexico’s lower rate and an Afore structured-instrument ceiling reported at up to 30% keep it the best-lit pension market, while Brazil’s pause and a weaker real mean hedging cost stays part of every dollar-LP conversation. We found no new dated allocator RFPs or hires this fortnight, so this issue is shorter and leans on macro and regulation.

Update on Last Issue

• Copom (4 Nov): Confirmed. The Selic was held at 13.75% unanimously, ending five straight 25bp cuts, per a secondary report; the market had been split between a cut and a pause.
• Colombia pension reform at the Constitutional Court: Delayed. The House corrected the procedural defects on 28 Oct, but the Court says its review is not finished: the fiscal-impact incident, the returned articles and Colpensiones’ request to push entry into force to April 2028 remain open (Semana, 30 Oct). No ruling found.
• CONSAR structured-instrument cap: Changed. Last issue we called the 20% to 30% move pending; Expansión (29 Oct) now describes Afores as able to invest up to 30% in structured instruments and alternatives, with actual structured exposure at 7.95% in September 2026. We could not confirm the circular date.
• Afore mandates for Blue Owl, Ares, Golub: No news.
• Banxico: Changed. Held at 6.50% through September, then cut 25bp to 6.25% on 5 Nov.

Charts

Brazil still offers by far the widest cushion of policy rate over inflation, while Peru’s Lima inflation now sits above its policy rate.

Sovereign spreads show Argentina as the outlier and Chile and Peru as the tightest large markets, which frames how far local-currency and dollar strategies must price over sovereign risk.

Brazil’s easing cycle is now a pause: five 25bp cuts took the Selic from 15.00% to 13.75%, and the 4 Nov hold ended the run.

Analysis: What the Data Says

Rates and real rates. On the prints shown, the policy-rate gap over inflation is about 9.2 points in Brazil, 6.0 in Colombia, 2.6 in Mexico and 0.4 in Chile (September CPI; one outlet reported October at 4.5%, which we could not verify), and about minus 1.0 in Peru against Lima inflation. Mexico’s cut narrows its cushion but Banxico reportedly signalled a hold for an extended period, which helps local CKD and CERPI pricing. Brazil’s cushion remains the main reason local-currency credit is easy to pitch.

FX, spreads and the US backdrop. USD/BRL closed at R$5.4876 on 5 Nov (up 0.67%) as Wall Street sold off sharply, and the Copom statement reportedly cited a stronger dollar. The Fed held at 3.75-4.00% on 28 Oct with markets pricing a possible December hike, and the 10-year Treasury was 4.90% on 4 Nov. Higher US yields and a firm dollar raise hedging costs for dollar LPs and lengthen decision times, even though EMBI spreads for Chile, Peru and Panama remain tight.

Pension flows and limits. Mexican Afore assets were MXN 9.08 trillion at end-September against 8.06 trillion a year earlier (about +12.6%), per Expansión citing CONSAR. Structured exposure of 7.95% against a ceiling reported at 30% implies headroom, but Hamilton Lane’s comments in the same piece suggest the shift will be gradual, with growth expected from March 2027. That is a multi-year build, not a near-term fundraising window.

Mandate momentum and what would change the view. We found no new dated RFPs or awards this week, so we cannot say which asset classes are gaining mandate share; exits such as Lightrock’s sale of General Water suggest realisations continue in Brazil. A Colombian Court ruling that clears the reform, a hawkish Copom minutes on 10 Nov, or a further US-driven dollar rally would move our reads below.

Country	Rates and real-rate picture	FX/risk	Pension/regulatory	LP appetite	Reason
Brazil	Selic 13.75% vs IPCA 4.58%	USD/BRL 5.49; EMBI 195bp	No new rules found	Stable	Easing paused; wide real rate offsets FX swings
Mexico	6.25% vs 3.62%	USD/MXN about 18.7-18.8; EMBI 228bp	Structured ceiling reported 30%	Improving	Cut with hold signalled; Afore AUM MXN 9.08tn
Chile	4.50% vs 4.1% (Sep)	EMBI 104bp	Reform stages from Apr 2027	Stable	Thin real rate; board considered a hike per minutes
Colombia	12.25% vs 6.29%	TRM 3,221 (5 Nov); EMBI 234bp	Reform still at Court	Softer	4-3 hold vote; Court review unfinished
Peru	4.25% vs 5.25% (Lima)	EMBI 121bp	No verified change	Unclear	Inflation above 5%; BCRP decides 12 Nov
Argentina	CPI 33.4% (Sep)	EMBI 801bp	None found	Unclear	Spread far above peers
Panama/DR/Costa Rica	Not compared	EMBI 134 / 195 / 158bp	No rule change found	Unclear	Spreads only; thin verified news

Pensions and Regulation

• Mexico: Afores may now invest up to 30% in structured instruments and alternatives, with actual structured exposure at 7.95% in September 2026 and FIBRAs at 3.05% (Expansión, 29 Oct). We could not find the circular itself or its effective date. BD angle: pitch CKD, CERPI and FIBRA-adjacent vehicles but confirm the rule text with CONSAR before quoting capacity.
• Colombia: the Court’s review of the pension reform continues after Congress cured the procedural defects on 28 Oct; Colpensiones has asked for entry into force in April 2028 (Semana, 30 Oct). BD angle: do not treat Colombian AFP capacity as imminent until a ruling and start date exist.
• Colombia (draft): a Finance Ministry draft decree would cap AFP foreign assets at 30%, against about 48.8% abroad now (Holland & Knight, 26 Jan 2026). We found no evidence it was adopted. BD angle: if finalised it would push AFP money toward local assets, favouring local-currency strategies over offshore funds.

Fundraising and Deals

• Lightrock fully exited Brazil’s General Water through a sale to Kadri Group, reported 4 Nov; one source gives a stake of about 27.5% and another 30%, so the stake and the reported multiple are unverified (Global Private Capital).
• The Saudi Eksab, IDC Impact Fund launched on 1 Oct, with IDB Invest and IDC Network as founding partners and CAF participating; it targets consumer growth companies in Central America and the Caribbean. Size not disclosed; LAVCA surfaced it on 5 Nov (IDB Invest).

Indicators Dashboard

Indicator	Latest	Date	Change vs prior issue	Source
Brazil Selic	13.75%	4 Nov 2026	Unchanged (hold)	Soubrasilia, Gazeta Mercantil
Brazil Focus IPCA 2026 / Selic end-2026	5.22% / 13.50%	3 Nov 2026	+0.03 pt / +25bp vs 26 Oct	Rio Times
Brazil IPCA 12m	4.58%	Sep 2026	Unchanged print	Gazeta Mercantil
USD/BRL	5.4876	5 Nov 2026	+0.05 vs 5.44 (30 Oct)	Agência Brasil
Mexico policy rate	6.25%	5 Nov 2026	-25bp	Alto Nivel, Infobae
Mexico CPI	3.62%	1H Oct 2026	Unchanged print	INEGI
USD/MXN	about 18.74-18.76	5 Nov 2026	Intraday sources differ	El Financiero, Infobae
Mexico Afore AUM	MXN 9.08tn	End-Sep 2026	+12.6% y/y	Expansión (CONSAR)
Chile TPM	4.50%	27 Oct 2026	Unchanged	Rankia
Colombia policy rate	12.25%	30 Oct 2026	Unchanged	Banrep
Peru Lima CPI	5.25%	Oct 2026 (1 Nov)	Unchanged print	Rio Times (INEI)
LatAm EMBI average	208bp	2 Nov 2026	New this issue	Bloomberg Línea

Watchlist

• Brazil Copom minutes: show whether the pause is conditional; Tue 10 Nov.
• Colombia Constitutional Court: reform timeline and the April 2028 request; no date, recheck next issue.
• CONSAR circular: confirm the 30% structured ceiling and its effective date.
• Afore mandates for Blue Owl, Ares and Golub: no news since June reports; recheck next issue.
• Colombia draft decree on a 30% foreign-asset cap for AFPs: confirm whether adopted.
• Peru BCRP decision: Lima inflation is above the policy rate; Thu 12 Nov.
• Banxico next decision: 17 Dec per one outlet’s caption; confirm on the Banxico calendar.

Calendar

• Mon 9 Nov: Brazil Focus survey; Mexico October CPI (per BBVA Research agenda, not confirmed with INEGI).
• Tue 10 Nov: Brazil Copom minutes; US October CPI.
• Thu 12 Nov: Brazil October IPCA (IBGE); Peru BCRP rate decision.
• Not confirmed: DANE October CPI date and Chile INE October CPI.

Also on our radar. Costa Rica’s EMBI spread was 158bp on 2 Nov, between Panama and Brazil, and the IDB Invest-backed Saudi Eksab fund targets Central America and the Caribbean.

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Data as of 6 November 2026. Items reflect public reports on the dates shown; terms are as reported by the sources and may change. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.

Sources

• Soubrasilia, Copom hold 4 Nov
• Soubrasilia, Selic path
• Gazeta Mercantil, Copom
• Rio Times, Focus survey
• Agência Brasil, markets 5 Nov
• Alto Nivel, Banxico and Fed
• Infobae, Banxico cut
• Infobae, USD/MXN
• El Financiero, USD/MXN
• INEGI, 1H October CPI
• Expansión, Afores and Hamilton Lane
• Rankia, Chile TPM
• Banrep, October decision
• DANE, CPI
• RCN, COP TRM
• Semana, Colombia pension reform
• Holland & Knight, Colombia AFP foreign cap draft
• Rio Times, Peru inflation
• Infobae, BCRP
• Bloomberg Línea, EMBI spreads
• Federal Reserve, H.15
• BBVA Research, 2026 agenda
• Global Private Capital, Lightrock exit
• IDB Invest, Saudi Eksab fund