LATAM Business Watch · Friday, 13 November 2026 · 5-minute read

Good morning. Brazil’s Senate backs a fiscal fix, Nubank posts a record quarter, Colombia finds a US$15 billion hole in its quake bill, Peru races to a budget vote, and Mexico gets another tariff threat.

Let’s get into it.

Five Things to Know

1. Brazil’s Senate passes the fiscal bill’s core. The Senate approved the main text of PLP 299/2026 by 45 to 31 on 12 November; the government projects a 2027 primary-balance gain of R$45.1B to R$56.1B, and four contested points go to a vote on Tuesday 17 November before the bill reaches the Chamber (Rio Times). Why it matters: Brazilian debt costs, hedging prices and exit windows all lean on whether the fiscal numbers hold, and estimates already differ across official figures. Passed, but not finished.
2. Nubank posts a record US$1.1B quarter. Q3 net income rose 31% at constant FX, revenue hit US$6.3B and customers reached 143M, but loans overdue 90+ days rose to 7.3% from 6.9% (Rio Times, citing the 12 Nov company release).
3. Grupo Argos weighs trimming Cementos Argos. The Colombian holding said on 12 November it is evaluating a marginal sale of the cement unit’s shares while keeping control, partly to widen free float; no size, price or date is set (Rio Times).
4. Colombia’s quake rebuild is short about US$15B. The ombudsman’s office put recovery costs at COP 58.29T, with COP 8.21T identified, leaving a gap of COP 50.08T, in a 10 November communiqué reported by the Rio Times. The dollar figure is the outlet’s conversion.
5. Peru’s 2027 budget heads to a 20 November vote. The draft is S/266.5B, up 3.5%; the law must reach the executive by 30 November (Rio Times, 12 Nov).

Today’s deep dive: Crucitas Referendum Talk: How to Price Costa Rica Permit Risk

Markets Snapshot

• Brazil: Ibovespa closed at 171,324 on 12 November, down 0.43% on the day and up 3.09% over five sessions; the dollar was at R$5.6413 (Rio Times).
• Mexico: the IPC closed at 71,811, down 0.27% from a record 72,006 the day before; the peso was near 18.60 per dollar (Rio Times).
• Chile: the IPSA rose 0.69% to 10,625 and the dollar gained 1.17% to 994.30 pesos (Rio Times).
• Argentina: the peso was about 1,545 per dollar and country risk about 830 points on a JP Morgan basis (Rio Times). We omit the Merval because the source’s level and units conflict.
• US 10-year yield: 5.10% on 12 November, up from 4.98% on Tuesday, per the same Rio Times reports (single source).

Source: Rio Times market reports for the 12 November close. Its daily FX changes conflict across pages, so we show levels only; Colombia, Peru and Costa Rica readings are omitted. Our branded snapshot card is skipped today because the image upload was blocked.

Private Markets Pulse

• DFI money: IDB Invest announced a US$200M financing to First Citizens Bank on 10 November to expand lending to small businesses and low- and middle-income households (IDB Invest).
• Venture: LAVCA’s 12 November Venture Bulletin lists Clara securing US$105M; we could not open the bulletin, so investors and country are unconfirmed (LAVCA).
• Real assets: Banorte’s asking-price index put Mexican homes at 32,682 pesos per square metre in October, up 4.3% year on year; these are listing prices, not sales (Rio Times).

Macro Radar

• Brazil · Copom: the Selic stayed at 13.75% on 4 November, and central bank president Gabriel Galípolo said on 11 November that there is no forward guidance, with the next meeting on 9 December (Rio Times). Private-markets angle: no guidance keeps local-currency debt pricing and hedging costs hard to lock in; our read, not a forecast.
• Colombia · Inflation: food inflation reached 7.31% in October, the highest in three years (La República, 12 Nov). Private-markets angle: sticky prices weigh on how fast borrowing costs can fall.
• Mexico · Trade: President Trump threatened on 12 November to double tariffs unless migrant caravans are stopped, with no rate, deadline or legal instrument named; a 10% Section 301 duty on non-USMCA goods has applied since 24 July (Rio Times). Private-markets angle: it clouds nearshoring underwriting.

Around the Region

• Brazil: Petrobras’s board set a Q3 shareholder payout of R$15.3B on 10 November, down 12% from Q2, payable in February and March 2027 (Rio Times). Below what analysts hoped.
• Colombia: Grupo Aval’s Q3 profit fell 29.3% to COP 368B, which the report ties to absorbing Itaú’s Colombian retail bank (Rio Times).
• Brazil: a PLP 299 provision limiting company tax-credit offsets, estimated at R$12.8B to R$18.3B for 2027, drew deletion amendments on 12 November (Rio Times).

Costa Rica Corner

• The Monex dollar closed at ₡448.43 on 10 November, ₡1.63 above the 17 September record low of ₡446.80, and the central bank bought US$9M on 6 November (Tico Times, citing central bank data).
• A bill filed on 9 November would require ICT licences and insurance for guided-hike operators and has not been assigned to a committee (Tico Times).

Number of the Day

-17.04%

That is the Ibovespa’s move over 20 sessions to 12 November, even after gaining 3.09% in the last five (Rio Times).

On the Calendar

• Today: Colombia’s DANE publishes industrial production and retail trade at 10:00 Bogotá time (DANE).
• Tuesday 17 Nov: Brazil’s Senate votes four contested points of PLP 299, per the Rio Times.
• Thursday 19 Nov: Peru’s Congress debates the 2027 budget, with the vote on Friday 20 November (Rio Times).
• Monday 30 Nov: constitutional deadline for the budget law to reach Peru’s executive.
• Wednesday 9 Dec: next Copom meeting in Brazil.

The Water Cooler

Brazil is arguing over how to find fiscal room while Colombia is arguing over who pays for a quake; both are the same question about who covers the bill. Our read, not a forecast: expect more headlines about the answer than the money.

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Data as of 13 November 2026. Items reflect public reports on the dates shown; deal terms are as reported by the sources and may change. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.

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