LATAM Business Watch · Thursday, 12 November 2026 · 5-minute read

Good morning. Banco do Brasil halves its profit guidance, Entel puts Peru up for sale, Brazil’s stock market sheds US$126bn since the election, and Ecopetrol sells US$2bn of bonds to a very eager crowd.

Let’s get into it.

Five Things to Know

1. Banco do Brasil halves its profit guidance. The state-controlled lender cut 2026 adjusted net income guidance to R$9-11bn from R$18-22bn on 11 November. Third-quarter adjusted profit fell nearly 67% to R$1.3bn on agribusiness loans, and credit-cost guidance rose to R$80-83bn (Bloomberg Línea). The press reports the CEO is expected to be replaced; that is unconfirmed. Why it matters: rural credit stress in Brazil’s biggest lender opens a door for agri-credit and special-situations investors, and may eventually test the bank’s capital.
2. Entel puts its Peru unit on the block. The Chilean group has hired an investment bank to sell the number-two Peruvian mobile operator, with 10.5M clients and US$923.8M of January-September revenue. Diario Financiero says approaches from Millicom have reportedly begun; no price was given (Diario Financiero). Millicom’s net debt hit US$7.98bn in September, so any bid has to be funded carefully.
3. Brazil’s fiscal bill meets a bruised bourse. The government sent a bill capping real spending growth at 2% from 2027 when the target is at risk; the planning minister projects R$50-60bn of improvement (Bloomberg Línea). Brazilian stocks have lost over R$700bn since the election (Bloomberg Línea).
4. Ecopetrol sells US$2bn at 7.875%. The 2034 notes drew US$6.93bn of orders, its strongest in five years, and settle today; proceeds prepay US$810M of 2029 bonds (Portafolio).
5. Just Climate closes US$540M. Generation’s NCS I fund closed on 12 November with CalSTRS and Microsoft as anchors. A LatAm vehicle is in fundraising, with BNDES among possible backers (NeoFeed).

Today’s deep dive: Building in Costa Rica? Construction Grew 9.9% as Free Zones Stall

Markets Snapshot

• USD/BRL closed at 5.5628 on 11 November, down 0.42% (Agência Brasil).
• Ibovespa closed at 172,060.44, up 0.42% (Agência Brasil).
• USD/MXN ended at 18.61, flat on Banxico’s interbank close per Publimetro; the Rio Times has the dollar down 0.08%, so sources differ slightly.
• Mexico’s IPC posted a record close of about 72,006, up 0.16%, its seventh straight gain, per the Rio Times article body (approximate; the page’s live board showed a different later figure).
• Brent (January) settled at US$92.76, up 1.39%, and WTI (December) at US$86.53, up 0.57%; the dollar index ended at 102.890, up 0.67% (Agência Brasil).

Closes for Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Peru and Costa Rica, plus the US 10-year yield, copper and country-risk spreads, could not be matched to a dated 11 November source this morning, so they are omitted and there is no snapshot card today.

Private Markets Pulse

• Real assets: Mexico’s state utility CFE is in talks with local and international investors, including IFC, about a follow-on for its Fibra; size not disclosed (LatinFinance, 11 Nov).
• Fundraising: Moneda Patria’s Renta CLP fund raised more than US$54M in its 2-6 November window, lifting assets above US$1.1bn; orders of about US$230M meant a 23.55% allocation (Diario Financiero).
• DFI money: CABEI priced Costa Rican colón bonds on 11 November, its first colón raise this year; size and rate not disclosed (LatinFinance).
• Real assets: Logistic Properties of the Americas plans a roughly US$85M logistics park in Lurín, Peru, after selling Parque Lima Sur to FIBRA Prime for US$145M (Gestión, 12 Nov).

Macro Radar

• US · CPI: October prices rose 0.4% m/m, core 0.3%, both above expectations; no annual rate was published because of data gaps from the shutdown (HousingWire, 10 Nov). Private-markets angle: higher-for-longer dollar funding keeps LatAm hedging costs and exit windows tight (our read, not a forecast).
• Ecuador · IMF: staff reached a deal on the sixth review of its programme on 9 November, worth about US$380M, pending Board approval (Rio Times). Private-markets angle: an IMF anchor supports sovereign spreads and project-finance access.
• Mexico · Activity: September industrial activity rose 1.3% y/y, down from 3.5%, with construction up 4.9%, per an industry report from Scotiabank. Private-markets angle: slower industry tempers the logistics and nearshoring demand story.

Deal Flow

M&A

• Cosan may drop Rumo’s 15% poison pill in talks with investors seeking a stake, Brazil rail, no value; unnamed sources. A pill is a defence; removing it is an invitation.
• B3 takes up to 40% of IDEX Analytics, Brazil credit data, R$40M primary injection; pending CADE and CVM approval.

Venture & Growth

• Clara raises US$105M, fintech, US$65M Series C plus a US$40M debt line.
• Palomma raises US$14M, Colombia rental payments, led by Cometa.

IPOs & Debt

• Chilean builder Echeverría Izquierdo places a UF 1M bond (about US$42M) at UF+4.08%, 1.4x covered.

Real Estate & Funds

• Four binding bids are in for Isidora 3000, Santiago offices; insiders estimate above US$130M, not confirmed.
• Colombian REIT Pei advances a five-asset Terranum purchase, adding over COP 200bn of annual NOI; needs Superfinanciera approval.

Around the Region

• Brazil: the Senate approved the farm debt-relief bill on 11 November; it awaits Lula’s signature (Rio Times).
• Mexico: Globalsat wants a deeper discount on 5G spectrum for rural service; Hacienda selected 12% (Expansión).
• Panama: Tocumen opened prequalification for private operators at the David and Río Hato airports; registration closes 27 November (La Prensa).
• Peru: Senace approved Mina Justa’s underground expansion, an investment near US$2bn (Gestión).
• Colombia: the financial regulator URF will review the usury-rate methodology in 2027 (La República).
• Ecuador: President Noboa said Adnoc will invest US$4.9bn over 15 years at the Sacha field; terms were still being negotiated (Bloomberg Línea, 9 Nov).
• Venezuela: ExxonMobil signed a non-binding memorandum to study exploration and production (Valora Analitik, 10 Nov).
• Update: Paraguay: Fitch placed the sovereign on rating watch negative on 11 November after the Ueno Bank scandal (LatinFinance).

Costa Rica Corner

• The central bank’s September activity index showed 2.4% growth, with free zones at 0.6% (BCCR).
• A microfinance association backed the bill replacing fixed maximum loan rates with a methodology set by the regulator; it is still in committee (CRHoy, 11 Nov).
• Grupo Pedregal opens a US$12M robotised concrete-block plant in Esparza, lifting capacity from 21,000 to 87,000 blocks a day (El Observador).

Number of the Day

7.95%

That is the share of Mexican Siefore pension portfolios held in structured instruments at end-September 2026, against a 30% legal cap on alternatives, leaving wide headroom for private-markets allocations (Expansión, citing Consar data).

On the Calendar

• Today: Peru’s central bank rate decision (a hold at 4.25% is expected per Scotiabank); Argentina’s October inflation at 16:00 (Perfil); Brazil’s October IPCA per the Scotiabank calendar.
• Friday: US producer prices, 08:30 ET (BLS).
• Monday: Brazil’s IBC-Br activity index, 07:00 local.
• Tuesday: Colombia third-quarter GDP, 10:00; US retail sales.
• Wednesday: Chile third-quarter GDP, 06:30; FOMC minutes, 14:00 ET (third-party calendar; confirm with the Fed).

The Water Cooler

Brazil’s state bank books the farm-loan pain on the same day Congress passes farm debt relief: one is an invoice, the other is a bill.

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Data as of 12 November 2026. Items reflect public reports on the dates shown; deal terms are as reported by the sources and may change. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.