Two views of Costa Rica’s office market surfaced within days of each other. A Cushman & Wakefield | AB Advisory executive told local media that vacancy could climb to 27.1% by 2030 if multinationals keep cutting jobs, while the most recent broker readings we found sit close to 18%. We use that gap to show how to underwrite an office asset when the headline number depends on whose definition you use.
Run the numbers: Load this example (an office asset at the 27.1% vacancy scenario) or the 17.5% current-reading case. Rent, price and financing inputs are placeholders; replace them with the asset’s actual figures.
Key takeaways
- Published vacancy readings cluster between 17.5% and about 19%, so the live debate is about direction, not today’s level.
- The 27.1% figure is one adviser’s scenario that depends on job cuts continuing, not a measurement.
- Underwrite backfill time and tenant concentration, not just in-place occupancy.
What Happened
- On 16 and 17 October, local outlets reported Daniel Álvarez of Cushman & Wakefield | AB Advisory putting current average office vacancy at about 19% and projecting 27.1% by 2030 if multinational job cuts persist.
- Social-security (CCSS) data show 200,203 salaried free-zone workers in July 2026 against 202,408 a year earlier, a fall of 2,205 jobs or 1.1%, reported as the first annual decline in seven years.
- Using his estimate of roughly 11 m² of office space per job, Álvarez links those losses to about 24,000 m² of space; our check (2,205 × 11) gives 24,255 m².
- JLL put San José vacancy at 17.9% for the first half of 2026, inside the 17% to 18% range it describes since 2022, and notes developers usually want about half a building pre-leased before they start.
- CBRE reported 17.5% vacancy at the end of 2025, net absorption above 25,000 m² for 2025 and about 30,000 m² of new space expected in 2026.
- A CBRE update reported on 15 October cited first-quarter 2026 net absorption of 4,100 m² on 1.6 million m² of Class A stock, one project of 11,000 m² under construction, and 40 proposed buildings totalling more than 1.4 million m².
Chart: Costa Rica office vacancy readings and one 2030 scenario, per cent
| Reading | Source | Period | Vacancy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | CBRE | End-2025 | 17.5% |
| Measured | JLL (San José) | 1H 2026 | 17.9% |
| Adviser estimate | Cushman & Wakefield | AB Advisory | Current (Oct 2026) | about 19% |
| Scenario, not a forecast we endorse | Cushman & Wakefield | AB Advisory | 2030 | 27.1% |
Why It Matters for Costa Rica
Costa Rican office demand leans on a narrow group of occupiers. CBRE says Heredia and Escazú hold 60% of occupied office area, and the Tico Times reports that business services and manufacturing make up 85% of free-zone jobs, the segment with the sharpest slowdown. When one tenant type drives most leasing, a modest change in its headcount can move the whole market.
Scale is the useful part. The 24,255 m² implied by one year of free-zone job losses is of the same order as CBRE’s 2025 net absorption of more than 25,000 m². The comparison is rough, since fewer workers do not mean a lease ends the same month, but it shows how a single year of weak hiring could absorb a year of leasing gains.
The supply side offers some comfort. With one project of 11,000 m² under construction and developers asking for about 50% pre-leasing, new stock is unlikely to flood the market soon. The 1.4 million m² of proposed buildings is a list of intentions, not steel in the ground. The nearer risk is shadow supply: space returned or sublet inside existing buildings.
Where the Story Is Weaker
The 27.1% figure is a scenario from a single adviser, and it assumes job cuts continue. The claim that announced job losses capture only about a third of the real impact comes without a published method. Vacancy of about 19% also sits above the 17.5% and 17.9% readings from CBRE and JLL, and the sources do not reconcile definitions such as physical vacancy versus available space.
There are offsets. JLL describes prime rents as steady despite a stronger colón, and CBRE projected rent increases of 1% to 5% for 2026. The 11 m² per job conversion is an estimate; hybrid work and long leases mean freed space may take years to reach the market. A single quarter of 4,100 m² absorption is also a thin base for any trend call.
Investor Read-Through
- Underwrite a vacancy path, not a point: run a base case near today’s 18%, and test whether debt service still holds at 27.1% (our read, not a forecast).
- Map rent by tenant: how much comes from multinational or free-zone occupiers, and when they can break, sublet or walk.
- Price the backfill: months of downtime, free rent and fit-out cost to re-let a floor should come from the sponsor’s own file, then be stress-tested.
- Insist on definitions: ask whether a sponsor’s vacancy figure includes sublease space and pre-leased but unoccupied area (our read, not a forecast).
Run Your Own Numbers
Take an office or flex asset you own or are evaluating and fill in the table below. The aim is to see how much of the cash flow depends on a few tenants and how long a vacated floor would sit empty.
| Input | Your assumption | Effect on cash flow |
|---|---|---|
| Occupancy used in base case | ||
| Share of rent from free-zone or multinational tenants | ||
| Months to re-let a vacated floor | ||
| Lease expiries or breaks in the next 36 months |
Illustration only, not a forecast. Take a hypothetical 10,000 m² building. At the 17.9% vacancy JLL reports, 8,210 m² is let (10,000 × 0.821). At the 27.1% scenario, 7,290 m² is let (10,000 × 0.729). That is 920 m² less let space, or 11.2% fewer let square metres, before any change in rent.
Questions to take to a sponsor, advisor or counterparty
- Which tenants are free-zone or multinational occupiers, and when can each break or sublet?
- How is vacancy defined in your model, and does it include sublease space?
- What does debt service coverage look like in your downside case, and how many months of downtime does it assume?
Data as of 18 October 2026. Figures marked preliminary will be revised. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.
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