LATAM Business Watch · Thursday, 5 November 2026 · 5-minute read

Good morning. Brazil’s central bank stops cutting, Argentina’s IPO window slams shut, Itaú posts a US$2.3 billion quarter, Mexico’s stock index hits a six-month high, and a Costa Rica call-centre firm wants to promise far fewer jobs.

Let’s get into it.

Five Things to Know

1. Copom holds Selic, ends cutting streak. Brazil’s central bank kept its policy rate at 13.75% on 4 November by unanimous vote, after five 25-basis-point cuts from 15%, and gave no date for resuming, per the Rio Times. September inflation was 4.58%, above the 4.5% ceiling. Why it matters: local-currency credit stays expensive, which keeps pressure on real-estate valuations and delays exit windows.
2. Argentina’s IPO window closes. Genneia pushed its planned NYSE listing to 2027 at the earliest, and YPF Luz’s IPO was shelved after YPF agreed to buy about 25% for US$430 million, Bloomberg Línea reported on 4 November. The Merval is down almost 30% in dollars from its June peak. Nobody wants to be first through a closing door.
3. Itaú earns R$12.6 billion. The bank’s third-quarter recurring profit rose 6.2% (about US$2.3 billion) with return on equity of 23.6% and 90-day overdue loans at 2.0%, per the Rio Times (results of 3 November).
4. ISA books US$2.7 billion of new deals. The Colombian utility group reported new deals and awards of about US$2.708 billion for January to September, with investments up 19% to roughly US$1.46 billion, EFE reported on 4 November.
5. Argentina M&A up 31%. January to September deal value reached US$6.515 billion across 203 deals, while regional deal value fell 5% to US$78.8 billion, iProUP reported on 3 November citing Aon, TTR and Datasite.

Today’s deep dive: Costa Rica’s Tax Audit Rules May Change: What Business Buyers Should Check

Markets Snapshot

Closes of Wednesday, 4 November. The dollar fell across the region after Democrats won the US Congress. FX changes are the dollar’s move; negative means the local currency gained.

• Brazil: Ibovespa 167,563 (+1.23%), ending a six-session losing streak; USD/BRL R$5.451 (-0.64%), per Metrópoles.
• Mexico: S&P/BMV IPC 71,386 (+1.71%), a six-month high; USD/MXN about 18.57 (-1.38%), per the Rio Times and Infobae. Other outlets print the peso at 18.57 to 18.62.
• Chile: S&P IPSA 10,627 (+2.52%); USD/CLP 964.71 (-1.67%), the lowest since 25 September, per Emol.
• Argentina: Merval down 2.4%; official wholesale peso 1,546 per dollar (-0.3%), per Infobae.
• Colombia and Peru: COLCAP 2,506 (-0.84%) per the Rio Times; the sol closed at S/3.4441 per dollar, down 0.43% open to close, per Revista Economía.
• Oil and US yields: Brent fell 8.67% to US$94.62 per Emol; the US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to about 4.9%, per Fortune.
• Costa Rica: the last verified MONEX weighted average was ₡452.62 per dollar on 3 November, per the BCCR; the 4 November figure was not yet published.

Private Markets Pulse

• Real assets: Mexican property trust FIBRAeMX is preparing a 31.5-year sustainability-linked bond in the local market to repay debt, LatinFinance reported on 3 November; size was not shown.
• DFI money: an IDB Invest-sponsored analysis says the bank approved more than US$1 billion of operations with Argentine financial institutions for small businesses over the past year (LatinFinance, sponsored content, 3 November).
• Pensions: Mexican Afore assets stood at MXN 9.08 trillion at end-September, with structured instruments at 7.95% and Fibras at 3.05% of portfolios against a 30% regulatory ceiling, per Expansión (29 October, citing Consar). Plenty of headroom, so far barely used.
• Project finance: an unnamed Brazilian concessionaire raised BRL 2.7 billion (about US$545 million) for a Minas Gerais motorway, Latin Lawyer reported on 3 November.

Macro Radar

• Mexico · Public finances: the September deficit was MXN 222.34 billion and the January to September deficit MXN 968.5 billion, per the Rio Times (4 November). Private-markets angle: a heavy financing need can crowd sovereign spreads and delay infrastructure pipelines.
• Mexico · Manufacturing: the October PMI was 49.5, just under the 50 line, per the Rio Times. Private-markets angle: soft factory demand tests the industrial-lease story behind nearshoring.
• Brazil · US tariffs: the 25% Section 301 duty on most Brazilian goods stays, with coffee, beef, orange juice, civil aircraft and pharmaceuticals excluded, per the Rio Times. Private-markets angle: export-linked agribusiness and logistics assets keep a tariff overhang.
• Colombia · Inflation: central-bank staff reportedly see inflation ending 2026 at 7.1% and 2027 at 4.8% (La República, via the Rio Times; single source, unconfirmed). Private-markets angle: sticky prices keep peso borrowing costs high; our read, not a forecast.

Deal Flow

M&A

• eToro agreed to buy LB Finanzas, an Argentine investing and payments app, price undisclosed and subject to closing conditions (4 November).

IPOs & Debt

• Grupo Energía Bogotá is raising COP 400 billion (about US$126 million) via a debt offering, Colombia.
• EPM began pitching investors on new dollar notes, Colombia; size not disclosed. Another week, another utility visiting the dollar market.

Distressed

• Creditors holding 61.6% of Oncoclínicas’s debt backed its restructuring plan, Brazil healthcare; terms not public.
• Paraguay seized Ueno Bank, a digital lender, adding political pressure on the president, per LatinFinance (3 November).

Around the Region

• Peru: the finance minister says there is fiscal space for a stimulus of about US$5.2 billion against El Niño, higher oil and higher borrowing costs, LatinFinance reported on 4 November.
• Dominican Republic: Fitch upgraded the country, per a LatinFinance headline (3 November); details were not available to us.
• Brazil: September net formal jobs came in at 121,310 against a forecast near 171,000, per the Rio Times.
• Uruguay: regional lender Fonplata priced its first notes in Uruguay’s local market (4 November).
• Mexico: mortgage lender SHF is heading to the local bond market, per a LatinFinance headline (4 November).

Costa Rica Corner

• Free-zone firm TTEC asked the trade ministry to cut its minimum employment commitment from 111 workers to 45, citing competition from India and the Philippines; it is one of 39 free-zone firms to ask for lower targets in three years, per El Financiero (4 November).
• The central bank bought about US$1.264 billion in MONEX stabilisation operations between 19 February and 30 October, a record since 2015, while the colón is about 9.9% stronger year on year, per La Nación (5 November).

Number of the Day

-19%

That is how far Brazil’s Ibovespa has fallen over 20 sessions, a 20-session figure rather than a calendar month, even after Wednesday’s 1.23% bounce, per the Rio Times (4 November).

On the Calendar

• Today: Banxico decides on its 6.50% rate at 13:00 Mexico City time; most analysts in a Citi survey expect no move, per Bloomberg Línea. Brazil’s September industrial production and US jobless claims also land.
• Friday: US October jobs report; Chile’s October CPI (forecast 4.2% year on year) and Brazil’s trade balance, per the Rio Times guide.
• Monday: Mexico’s October CPI (forecast 3.65%) and Colombia’s (forecast 6.4%), same guide.
• Tuesday: US October CPI; Brazil’s Copom minutes are expected.
• Wednesday: deadline in Costa Rica to apply for CCSS debt forgiveness, per Delfino.

The Water Cooler

A weaker dollar lifted Santiago and Mexico City on Wednesday, yet Buenos Aires fell and its IPOs stalled while Brazil’s rates froze: capital is returning to the region selectively, not everywhere at once. Our read, not a forecast.

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Data as of 5 November 2026. Items reflect public reports on the dates shown; deal terms are as reported by the sources and may change. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.