Key takeaways

• The central bank forecasts growth of 3.2% in 2026, 3.3% in 2027 and 3.6% in 2028, after trimming both 2026 and 2027 by 0.2 percentage points.
• It expects inflation near 2.7% in the second half of 2027, up from roughly zero this year, so budget for running costs that rise instead of staying flat.
• The report is a macro forecast, not a price or rent forecast: we found nothing in it, or in the coverage we read, that predicts property values.

What happened

• Costa Rica’s central bank (BCCR) published its October Monetary Policy Report, covered by Infobae on 3 November. It forecasts growth of 3.2% for 2026, 3.3% for 2027 and 3.6% for 2028, an average close to 3.5% for 2027 and 2028. The 2027 figure is 0.2 points below the July report.
• Output grew 2.7% in the third quarter from a year earlier, driven by domestic demand. Construction and services rose while manufacturing contracted.
• Headline inflation averaged 0.0% in the third quarter and core inflation 0.3%. The bank raised its inflation forecast for the second half of 2027 to about 2.7%, citing fuel. The target is 3% with a tolerance of one point either way. Separately, Infobae reported on 8 October that annual inflation turned positive in September, at 0.34%, after 16 negative months.
• The policy rate stood at 3.0% after the September meeting. The report puts the current-account deficit at 1.9% of GDP for 2026 and about 2.0% a year for 2027 and 2028.
• On public finances, the report cites Hacienda estimates for 2026 of a 0.9% of GDP primary surplus, a 3.8% financial deficit and public debt of 62.0% of GDP.

What This Means If You Are Buying

Think of the forecast as the weather for your running costs. Growth near 3% a year is steady: it supports employment and local demand but does not suggest a boom that lifts every asset. Our 31 October piece covered the 2026 growth cut; this one looks at what the 2027 and 2028 path means for the numbers you put in a spreadsheet.

Homes and condos. If you will live in or hold a home, the cost items that move with inflation are property management, maintenance, association fees, utilities and insurance. Going from about zero inflation to about 2.7% means those rise a little each year instead of staying flat. The bank also sees domestic demand, not exports, carrying growth, and construction is among the sectors expanding, so supply in some segments may keep arriving. We did not find a price forecast, so use local sale comparables.

Rentals. The exchange rate matters as much as inflation. The Rio Times, citing BCCR data, reported that the dollar averaged 497.07 colones on 2 January and 457.03 on 5 October, about 8% lower. If your rent is quoted in dollars but your cleaner, accountant and utilities are paid in colones, a firmer colón raises your costs in dollar terms. The BCCR report says it will intervene to avoid abrupt moves, per Infobae. Our currency-mismatch piece shows how to test this, and our vacation-rental piece covers the demand side.

Small businesses. A growth path led by domestic demand, with manufacturing contracting, favours businesses that sell to local customers over those that depend on exports. Who pays what for financing is also set by a ceiling: the BCCR caps new consumer credit rates for the second half of 2026 at 36.48% in colones and 30.11% in dollars, according to Infobae. Those are legal maximums, not what a bank will quote you, and the next update is due in January 2027. We found no new authoritative figures today for closing costs or purchase timelines, so we have left them out rather than estimate.

What Could Go Wrong

• Forecasts get revised: both 2026 and 2027 were trimmed by 0.2 points this time, and the 2028 figure of 3.6% is the furthest away and the least certain.
• Fuel drives the inflation revision. The report cites US crude at US$103.3 a barrel as of 23 October, up 8% in a month, so another oil spike would push running costs above the 2.7% path.
• Public finances leave less room: debt of 62.0% of GDP and a 3.8% deficit raise the odds of new taxes. See our pieces on a possible property tax rise and the US$13.5 billion eurobond bill.
• A narrower export base: manufacturing contracted while construction and services grew, so a buyer relying on export demand, including free-zone spillovers, has less support.
• Currency: a firmer colón helps buyers earning colones and hurts those whose income is in dollars.

The upside case: if growth does reach 3.3% in 2027 and 3.6% in 2028 and inflation settles inside the 2% to 4% band, local demand for homes and rentals stays supported without the cost shocks of a high-inflation market. Evidence would look like consecutive monthly activity readings near those growth rates and annual inflation holding between 2% and 4%.

Your Next Steps

• Expat buyers of homes: ask your Costa Rican attorney or notary to confirm the current association fees and property-tax position, then run your budget with costs rising about 2.7% a year. Our read, not a forecast: that is a prudent test, not a prediction.
• Rental buyers: list which costs are in colones and which income is in dollars, and test your net income if the dollar buys 5% fewer colones.
• Small-business buyers: ask the seller to split sales between local and export customers, and check social-security debts before the CCSS amnesty closes on 11 November.
• Local investors: compare the return on a colón deposit or rent with the 2.7% inflation forecast before assuming a property beats cash.

What to watch next: INEC’s October consumer price index and the central bank’s next policy-rate decision. We could not confirm either date when we checked, so confirm them on the INEC and BCCR calendars. The next scheduled update of lending-rate ceilings is January 2027.

Resumen en español

• El Banco Central prevé un crecimiento de 3,2% en 2026, 3,3% en 2027 y 3,6% en 2028, con un promedio cercano a 3,5% para 2027 y 2028.
• Espera una inflación cercana a 2,7% en el segundo semestre de 2027, desde cerca de cero este año, por lo que los costos de operar una vivienda o un alquiler subirían de forma gradual.
• A vigilar: el índice de precios de octubre del INEC y la próxima decisión de tasa de política monetaria; no pudimos confirmar las fechas.

Related reading: the 2026 growth cut and what it means for buyers, the currency-mismatch test and our Buyer Guides. Speak to a Costa Rican attorney or notary about your own transaction.

Data as of 4 November 2026. Figures marked preliminary will be revised. This is general market commentary, not investment advice.

Sources

• Infobae, 3 Nov 2026 (BCCR October Monetary Policy Report)
• Infobae, 8 Oct 2026 (INEC September inflation)
• Delfino.cr, Sept 2026 (policy rate)
• Infobae, 7 Jul 2026 (lending-rate ceilings)
• Rio Times, 5 Oct 2026 (colón and Monex)
• FinTech Global, 2 Nov 2026 (AIG/Everest Chile)
• Rio Times, 3 Nov 2026 (Brazil real)
• Rio Times, 3 Nov 2026 (Colombia)
• Rio Times, 3 Nov 2026 (Latin American Pulse)

Please leave this field empty

Pura Vida 👋
It’s nice to meet you.

Sign up to receive the latest insights in your inbox, every month.

We don’t spam! Read our privacy policy for more info.

Check your inbox or spam folder to confirm your subscription.